The Twilight Saga 4: Breaking Dawn 12. Some People Just Don’t Grasp …

12. Some People Just Don't Grasp The Concept Of â€Å"Unwelcome† I was right on the edge of sleep. The sun had risen behind the clouds an hour ago – the forest was gray now instead of black. Seth'd curled up and passed out around one, and I'd woken him at dawn to trade off. Even after running all night, I was having a hard time making my brain shut up long enough to fall asleep, but Seth's rhythmic run was helping. One, two-three, four, one, two-three, four – dum dum-dum dam – dull paw thuds against the damp earth, over and over as he made the wide circuit surrounding the Cullens' land. We were already wearing a trail into the ground. Seth's thoughts were empty, just a blur of green and gray as the woods flew past him. It was restful. It helped to fill my head with what he saw rather than letting my own images take center stage. And then Seth's piercing howl broke the early morning quiet. I lurched up from the ground, my front legs pulling toward a sprint before my hind legs were off the ground. I raced toward the place where Seth had frozen, listening with him to the tread of paws running in our direction. Morning, boys. A shocked whine broke through Seth's teeth. And then we both snarled as we read deeper into the new thoughts. Oh, man! Goaway, Leah! Seth groaned. I stopped when I got to Seth, head thrown back, ready to howl again – this time to complain. Cut the noise, Seth. Right. Ugh! Ugh! Ugh!He whimpered and pawed at the ground, scratching deep furrows in the dirt. Leah trotted into view, her small gray body weaving through the underbrush. Stop whining, Seth. You're such a baby. I growled at her, my ears flattening against my skull. She skipped back a step automatically. What do you think you're doing, Leah? She huffed a heavy sigh. It's pretty obvious, isn't it? I'm joining your crappy little renegade pack. The vampires' guard dogs. She barked out a low, sarcastic laugh. No, you're not. Turn around before I rip out one of your hamstrings. Like you could catch me.She grinned and coiled her body for launch. Wanna race, O fearless leader? I took a deep breath, filling my lungs until my sides bulged. Then, when I was sure I wasn't going to scream, i exhaled in a gust. Seth, go let the Cullens know that it's just your stupid sister – thought the words as harshly as possible. deal with this. On it!Seth was only too happy to leave. He vanished toward the house. Leah whined, and she leaned after him, the fur on her shoulders rising. You're just going to let him run off to the vampires alone? I'm pretty sure he'd rather they took him out than spend another minute with you. Shut up, Jacob. Oops, I'm sorry – meant, shut up, most high Alpha. Why thehellare you here? You think I'm just going to sit home while my little brother volunteers as a vampire chew toy? Seth doesn't want or need your protection. In fact, no one wants you here. Oooh, ouch, that's gonna leave ahuge mark. Ha, she barked. Tell me who does want me around, and I'm outta here. So this isn't about Seth at all, is it? Of course it is. I'm just pointing out that being unwanted is not a first for me. Not really a motivating factor, if you know what I mean. I gritted my teeth and tried to get my head straight. Did Sam send you? If I was here on Sam's errand, you wouldn't be able to hear me. My allegiance is no longer with him. I listened carefully to the thoughts mixed in with the words. If this was a diversion or a ploy, I had to be alert enough to see through it. But there was nothing. Her declaration was nothing but the truth. Unwilling, almost despairing truth. You're loyal tome now? I asked with deep sarcasm. Uh-huh. Right. My choices are limited. I'm working with the options I've got. Trust me, I'm not enjoying this any more than you are. That wasn't true. There was an edgy kind of excitement in her mind. She was unhappy about this, but she was also riding some weird high. I searched her mind, trying to understand. She bristled, resenting the intrusion. I usually tried to tune Leah out – I'd never tried to make sense of her before. We were interrupted by Seth, thinking his explanation at Edward. Leah whined anxiously. Edward's face, framed in the same window as last night, showed no reaction to the news. It was a blank face, dead. Wow, he looks bad,Seth muttered to himself. The vampire showed no reaction to that thought, either. He disappeared into the house. Seth pivoted and headed back out to us. Leah relaxed a little. What's going on?Leah asked. Catch me up to speed. There's no point You're not staying. Actually, Mr. Alpha, I am. Because since apparently I have to belong tosomeone – and don't think I haven't tried breaking off on my own, you know yourself how wellthat doesn ‘t work – choose you. Leah, you don't like me. I don't like you. Thank you, Captain Obvious. That doesn't matter to me. I'm staying with Seth. You don't like vampires. Don't you think that's a little conflict of interest right there? You don't like vampires either. But Iam committed to this alliance. You aren't. I'll keep my distance from them. I can run patrols out here, just like Seth. And I'm supposed to trust you with that? She stretched her neck, leaning up on her toes, trying to be as tall as me as she stared into my eyes. will not betray my pack. I wanted to throw my head back and howl, like Seth had before. This isn't your pack! This isn't even a pack. This is just me, going off on my own! What is it with you Clearwaters? Why can't you leave me alone? Seth, just coming up behind us now, whined; I'd offended him. Great. I've been helpful, haven't I, Jake? You haven't madetoo much a nuisance of yourself, kid, but if you and Leah are a package deal – if the only way to get rid of her is for you to go home†¦. Weil, can you blame me for wanting you gone? Ugh, Leah, you ruin everything! Yeah, I know,she told him, and the thought was loaded with the heaviness of her despair. I felt the pain in the three little words, and it was more than I would've guessed. I didn't want to feel that. I didn't want to feel bad for her. Sure, the pack was rough on her, but she brought it all on herself with the bitterness that tainted her every thought and made being in her head a nightmare. Seth was feeling guilty, too. Jake†¦ You're not really gonna send me away, are you? Leah's not so bad. Really. I mean, with her here, we can push the perimeter out farther. And this puts Sam down to seven. There's no way he's going to mount an attack that outnumbered. It's probably a good thing†¦. You know I don't want to lead a pack, Seth. So don't lead us,Leah offered. I snorted. Sounds perfect to me. Run along home now. Jake,Seth thought. belong here. I do like vampires. Cullens, anyway. They're people to me, and I'm going to protect them, 'cause that's what we're supposed to do. Maybe you belong, kid, but your sister doesn't And she's going to go wherever you are – I stopped short, because I saw something when I said that. Something Leah had been trying not to think. Leah wasn't going anywhere. Thought this was about Seth,I thought sourly. She flinched. Of course I'm here for Seth. And to get away from Sam. Her jaw clenched. don't have to explain myself to you. I just have to do what I'm told. I belong to your pack, Jacob. The end. I paced away from her, growling. Crap. I was never going to get rid of her. As much as she disliked me, as much as she loathed the Cullens, as happy as she'd be to go kill all the vampires right now, as much as it pissed her off to have to protect them instead – none of that was anything compared to what she felt being free of Sam. Leah didn't like me, so it wasn't such a chore having me wish she would disappear. She loved Sam. Still. And having him wish she would disappear was more pain than she was willing to live with, now that she had a choice. She would have taken any other option. Even if it meant moving in with the Cullens as their lapdog. don't know if I'd go that far, she thought. She tried to make the words tough, aggressive, but there were big cracks in her show. I'm sure I'd give killing myself a few good tries first. Look, Leah†¦ No,you look, Jacob. Stop arguing with me, because it's not going to do any good. I'll stay out of your way, okay? I'll do anything you want Except go back to Sam's pack and be the pathetic ex-girlfriend he can't get away from. If you want me to leave – she sat back on her haunches and stared straight into my eyes – you're going to have tomake me. I snarled for a long, angry minute. I was beginning to feel some sympathy for Sam, despite what he had done to me, to Seth. No wonder he was always ordering the pack around. How else would you ever get anything done? Seth, are you gonna get mad at me if I kill your sister? He pretended to think about it for a minute. Well†¦ yeah, probably. I sighed. Okay, then, Ms. Do-Anything-I-Want Why don't you make yourself useful by telling us what you know? What happened after we left last night? Lots of howling. But you probably heard that part. It was so loud that it took us a while to figure out that we couldn't hear either of you anymore. Sam was†¦Words failed her, but we could see it in our head. Both Seth and I cringed. After that, it was clear pretty quick that we were going to have to rethink things. Sam was planning to talk to the other Elders first thing this morning. We were supposed to meet up and figure out a game plan. I could tell he wasn't going to mount another attack right away, though. Suicide at this point, with you and Seth AWOL and the bloodsuckers forewarned. I'm not sure what they'll do, but I wouldn't be wandering the forest alone if I was a leech. It's open season on vamps now. You decided to skip the meeting this morning?I asked. When we split up for patrols last night, I asked permission to go home, to tell my mother what had happened – Crap! You told Mom?Seth growled. Seth, hold off on the sibling stuff for a sec. Go on, Leah. So once I was human, I took a minute to think things through. Well, actually, I took all night. I bet the others think I fell asleep. But the whole two-separate-packs, two-separate-pack-minds thing gave mea lot to sift through. In the end, I weighed Seth's safety and the, er, other benefits against the idea of turning traitor and sniffing vampire stink for who knows how long. You know what I decided. I left a note for my mom. I expect we'll hear it when Sam finds out . .. Leah cocked an ear to the west. Yeah, I expect we will,I agreed. So that's everything. What do we do now?she asked. She and Seth both looked at me expectantly. This was exactly the kind of thing I didn't want to have to do. guess we just keep an eye out for now. That's all we can do. You should probably take a nap, Leah. You've had as much sleep as I have. Thought you were going to do what you were told? Right. That's going to get old,she grumbled, and then she yawned. Well, whatever. I don't care. I'll run the border, Jake. I'm not tired at all.Seth was so glad I hadn't forced them home, he was all but prancing with excitement. Sure, sure. I'm going to go check in with the Cullens. Seth took off along the new path worn into the damp earth. Leah looked after him thoughtfully. Maybe a round or two before I crash†¦. Hey Seth, wanna see how many times I can lap you? NO! Barking out a low chuckle, Leah lunged into the woods after him. I growled uselessly. So much for peace and quiet. Leah was trying – for Leah. She kept her jibes to a minimum as she raced around the circuit, but it was impossible not to be aware of her smug mood. I thought of the whole â€Å"two's company† saying. It didn't really apply, because one was plenty to my mind. But if there had to be three of us, it was hard to think of anyone that I wouldn't trade her for. Paul?she suggested. Maybe,I allowed. She laughed to herself, too jittery and hyper to get offended, i wondered how long the buzz from dodging Sam's pity would last. That will be my goal then – to be less annoying than Paul. Yeah, work on that I changed into my other form when I was a few yards from the lawn. I hadn't been planning to spend much time human here. But I hadn't been planning to have Leah in my head, either. I pulled on my ragged shorts and started across the lawn. The door opened before I got to the steps, and I was surprised to see Carlisle rather than Edward step outside to meet me – his face looked exhausted and defeated. For a second, my heart froze. I faltered to a stop, unable to speak. â€Å"Are you all right, Jacob?† Carlisle asked. â€Å"Is Bella?† I choked out. â€Å"She's†¦ much the same as last night. Did I startle you? I'm sorry. Edward said you were coming in your human form, and I came out to greet you, as he didn't want to leave her. She's awake.† And Edward didn't want to lose any time with her, because he didn't have much time left. Carlisle didn't say the words out loud, but he might as well have. It had been a while since I'd slept – since before my last patrol. I could really feel that now. I took a step forward, sat down on the porch steps, and slumped against the railing. Moving whisper-quiet as only a vampire could, Carlisle took a seat on the same step, against the other railing. â€Å"I didn't get a chance to thank you last night, Jacob. You don't know how much I appreciate your†¦ compassion. I know your goal was to protect Bella, but I owe you the safety of the rest of my family as well. Edward told me what you had to do___† â€Å"Don't mention it,† I muttered. â€Å"If you prefer.† We sat in silence. I could hear the others in the house. Emmett, Alice, and Jasper, speaking in low, serious voices upstairs. Esme humming tunelessly in another room. Rosalie and Edward breathing close by – I couldn't tell which was which, but I could hear the difference in Bella's labored panting. I could hear her heart, too. It seemed†¦ uneven. It was like fate was out to make me do everything I'd ever sworn I wouldn't in the course of twenty-four hours. Here I was, hanging around, waiting for her to die. I didn't want to listen anymore. Talking was better than listening. â€Å"She's family to you?† I asked Carlisle. It had caught my notice before, when he'd said I'd helped the rest of his family, too. â€Å"Yes. Bella is already a daughter to me. A beloved daughter.† â€Å"But you're going to let her die.† He was quiet long enough that I looked up. His face was very, very tired. I knew how he felt. â€Å"I can imagine what you think of me for that,† he finally said. â€Å"But i can't ignore her will. It wouldn't be right to make such a choice for her, to force her.† I wanted to be angry with him, but he was making it hard. It was like he was throwing my own words back at me, just scrambled up. They'd sounded right before, but they couldn't be right now. Not with Bella dying. Still†¦ I remembered how it felt to be broken on the ground under Sam – to have no choice but be involved in the murder of someone I loved. It wasn't the same, though. Sam was wrong. And Bella loved things she shouldn't. â€Å"Do you think there's any chance she'll make it? I mean, as a vampire and all that. She told me about†¦ about Esme.† Tel say there's an even chance at this point,† he answered quietly. â€Å"I've seen vampire venom work miracles, but there are conditions that even venom cannot overcome. Her heart is working too hard now; if it should fail†¦ there won't be anything for me to do.† Bella's heartbeat throbbed and faltered, giving an agonizing emphasis to his words. Maybe the planet had started turning backward. Maybe that would explain how everything was the opposite of what it had been yesterday – how I could be hoping for what had once seemed like the very worst thing in the world. â€Å"What is that thing doing to her?† I whispered. â€Å"She was so much worse last night. I saw†¦ the tubes and all that. Through the window.† â€Å"The fetus isn't compatible with her body. Too strong, for one thing, but she could probably endure that for a while. The bigger problem is that it won't allow her to get the sustenance she needs. Her body is rejecting every form of nutrition. I'm trying to feed her intravenously, but she's just not absorbing it. Everything about her condition is accelerated. I'm watching her – and not just her, but the fetus as well – starve to death by the hour. I can't stop it and I can't slow it down. I can't figure out what it wants† His weary voice broke at the end. I felt the same way I had yesterday, when I'd seen the black stains across her stomach – furious, and a little crazy. I clenched my hands into fists to control the shaking. I hated the thing that was hurting her. It wasn't enough for the monster to beat her from the inside out. No, it was starving her, too. Probably just looking for something to sink its teeth into – a throat to suck dry. Since it wasn't big enough to kill anyone else yet, it settled for sucking Bella's life from her. I could tell them exactly what it wanted: death and blood, blood and death. My skin was all hot and prickly. I breathed slowly in and out, focusing on that to calm myself. â€Å"I wish I could get a better idea of what exactly it is,† Carlisle murmured. â€Å"The fetus is well protected. I haven't been able to produce an ultrasonic image. I doubt there is any way to get a needle through the amniotic sac, but Rosalie won't agree to let me try, in any case.† â€Å"A needle?† I mumbled. â€Å"What good would that do?† â€Å"The more I know about the fetus, the better I can estimate what it will be capable of. What I wouldn't give for even a little amniotic fluid. If I knew even the chromosomal count†¦Ã¢â‚¬  â€Å"You're losing me, Doc. Can you dumb it down?† He chuckled once – even his laugh sounded exhausted. â€Å"Okay. How much biology have you taken? Did you study chromosomal pairs?† â€Å"Think so. We have twenty-three, right?† â€Å"Humans do.† I blinked. â€Å"How many do you have?† â€Å"Twenty-five.† I frowned at my fists for a second. â€Å"What does that mean?† â€Å"I thought it meant that our species were almost completely different. Less related than a lion and a house cat. But this new life – well, it suggests that we're more genetically compatible than I'd thought.† He sighed sadly. â€Å"I didn't know to warn them.† I sighed, too. It had been easy to hate Edward for the same ignorance. I still hated him for it. It was just hard to feel the same way about Carlisle. Maybe because I wasn't ten shades of jealous in Carlisle's case. â€Å"It might help to know what the count was – whether the fetus was closer to us or to her. To know what to expect.† Then he shrugged. â€Å"And maybe it wouldn't help anything. I guess I just wish I had something to study, anything to do.† â€Å"Wonder what my chromosomes are like,† I muttered randomly. I thought of those Olympic steroids tests again. Did they run DNA scans? Carlisle coughed self-consciously. â€Å"You have twenty-four pairs, Jacob.† I turned slowly to stare at him, raising my eyebrows. He looked embarrassed. â€Å"I was†¦ curious. I took the liberty when I was treating you last June.† I thought about it for a second. â€Å"I guess that should piss me off. But I don't really care.† â€Å"I'm sorry. I should have asked.† â€Å"S'okay, Doc. You didn't mean any harm.† â€Å"No, I promise you that I did not mean you any harm. It's just that†¦ I find your species fascinating. I suppose that the elements of vampiric nature have come to seem commonplace to me over the centuries. Your family's divergence from humanity is much more interesting. Magical, almost.† â€Å"Bibbidi-Bobbidi-Boo,† I mumbled. He was just like Bella with all the magic garbage. Carlisle laughed another weary laugh. Then we heard Edward's voice inside the house, and we both paused to listen. â€Å"I'll be right back, Bella. I want to speak with Carlisle for a moment. Actually, Rosalie, would you mind accompanying me?† Edward sounded different. There was a little life in his dead voice. A spark of something. Not hope exactly, but maybe the desire to hope. â€Å"What is it, Edward?† Bella asked hoarsely. â€Å"Nothing you need to worry about, love. It will just take a second. Please, Rose?† â€Å"Esme?† Rosalie called. â€Å"Can you mindBella for me?† Iheard the whisper of wind as Esme flitted down the stairs. â€Å"Of course,† she said. Carlisle shifted, twisting to look expectantly at the door. Edward was through the door first, with Rosalie right on his heels. His face was, like his voice, no longer dead. He seemed intensely focused. Rosalie looked suspicious. Edward shut the door behind her. â€Å"Carlisle,† he murmured. â€Å"What is it, Edward?† â€Å"Perhaps we've been going about this the wrong way. I was listening to you and Jacob just now, and when you were speaking of what the†¦ fetus wants, Jacob had an interesting thought.† Me?What had thought? Besides my obvious hatred for the thing? At least I wasn't alone in that. I could tell that Edward had a difficult time using a term as mild as fetus. â€Å"We haven't actually addressed that angle,† Edward went on. â€Å"We've been trying to get Bella what she needs. And her body is accepting it about as well as one of ours would. Perhaps we should address the needs of the†¦ fetus first. Maybe if we can satisfy it, we'll be able to help her more effectively.† â€Å"I'm not following you, Edward,† Carlisle said. â€Å"Think about it, Carlisle. If that creature is more vampire than human, can't you guess what it craves – what it's not getting? Jacob did.† I did? I ran through the conversation, trying to remember what thoughts I'd kept to myself. I remembered at the same time that Carlisle understood. â€Å"Oh,† he said in a surprised tone. â€Å"You think it is†¦ thirsty?† Rosalie hissed under her breath. She wasn't suspicious anymore. Her revoltingly perfect face wasall lit up, her eyes wide with excitement. â€Å"Of course,† she muttered. â€Å"Carlisle, we have all that type O negative laid aside for Bella. It's a good idea,† she added, not looking at me. â€Å"Hmm.† Carlisle put his hand to his chin, lost in thought. â€Å"I wonder†¦ And then, what would be the best way to administer___† Rosalie shook her head. â€Å"We don't have time to be creative. I'd say we should start with the traditional way.† â€Å"Wait a minute,† i whispered. â€Å"Just hold on. Are you – are you talking about making Bella drink blood?† â€Å"It was your idea, dog,† Rosalie said, scowling at me without ever quite looking at me. I ignored her and watched Carlisle. That same ghost of hope that had been in Edward's face was now in the doctor's eyes. He pursed his lips, speculating. â€Å"That's just†¦Ã¢â‚¬  I couldn't find the right word. â€Å"Monstrous?† Edward suggested. â€Å"Repulsive?† â€Å"Pretty much.† â€Å"But what if it helps her?† he whispered. I shook my head angrily. â€Å"What are you gonna do, shove a tube down her throat?† â€Å"I plan to ask her what she thinks. I just wanted to run it past Carlisle first.† Rosalie nodded. â€Å"If you tell her it might help the baby, she'll be willing to do anything. Even if we do have to feed them through a tube.† I realized then – when I heard how her voice got all loveydovey as she said the word baby – that Blondie would be in line with anything that helped the little life-sucking monster. Was that what was going on, the mystery factor that was bonding the two of them? Was Rosalie after the kid? From the corner of my eye, I saw Edward nod once, absently, not looking in my direction. But I knew he was answering my questions. Huh. I wouldn't have thought the ice-cold Barbie would have a maternal side. So much for protecting Bella – Rosalie'd probably jam the tube down Bella's throat herself. Edward's mouth mashed into a hard line, and I knew I was right again. â€Å"Well, we don't have time to sit around discussing this,† Rosalie said impatiently. â€Å"What do you think, Carlisle? Can we try?† Carlisle took a deep breath, and then he was on his feet. â€Å"We'll ask Bella.† Blondie smiled smugly – sure that, if it was up to Bella, she would get her way. I dragged myself up from the stairs and followed after them as they disappeared into the house. I wasn't sure why. Just morbid curiosity, maybe. It was like a horror movie. Monsters and blood all over the place. Maybe I just couldn't resist another hit of my dwindling drug supply. Bella lay flat on the hospital bed, her belly a mountain under the sheet. She looked like wax – colorless and sort of see-through. You'd think she was already dead, except for the tiny movement of her chest, her shallow breathing. And then her eyes, following the four of us with exhausted suspicion. The others were at her side already, flitting across the room with sudden darting motions. It was creepy to watch. 1 ambled along at a slow walk. â€Å"What's going on?† Bella demanded in a scratchy whisper. Her waxy hand twitched up – like she was trying to protect her balloon-shaped stomach. â€Å"Jacob had an idea that might help you,† Carlisle said. I wished he would leave me out of it. I hadn't suggested anything. Give the credit to her bloodsucking husband, where it belonged. â€Å"It won't be†¦ pleasant, but – â€Å" â€Å"But it will help the baby,† Rosalie interrupted eagerly. â€Å"We've thought of a better way to feed him. Maybe.† Bella's eyelids fluttered. Then she coughed out a weak chuckle. â€Å"Not pleasant?† she whispered. â€Å"Gosh, that'll be such a change.† She eyed the tube stuck into her arm and coughed again. Blondie laughed with her. The girl looked like she only had hours left, and she had to be in pain, but she was making jokes. So Bella. Trying to ease the tension, make it better for everyone else. Edward stepped around Rosalie, no humor touching his intense expression. I was glad for that. It helped, just a little bit, that he was suffering worse than me. He took her hand, not the one that was still protecting her swollen belly. â€Å"Bella, love, we're going to ask you to do something monstrous,† he said, using the same adjectives he'd offered me. â€Å"Repulsive.† Well, at least he was giving it to her straight. She took a shallow, fluttery breath. â€Å"How bad?† Carlisle answered. â€Å"We think the fetus might have an appetite closer to ours than to yours. We think it's thirsty.† She blinked. â€Å"Oh. Oh.† â€Å"Your condition – both of your conditions – are deteriorating rapidly. We don't have time to waste, to come up with more palatable ways to do this. The fastest way to test the theory – â€Å" â€Å"I've got to drink it,† she whispered. She nodded slightly – barely enough energy for a little head bob. â€Å"I can do that. Practice for the future, right?† Her colorless lips stretched into a faint grin as she looked at Edward. He didn't smile back. Rosalie started tapping her toe impatiently. The sound was really irritating. I wondered what she would do if I threw her through a wall right now. â€Å"So, who's going to catch me a grizzly bear?† Bella whispered. Carlisle and Edward exchanged a quick glance. Rosalie stopped tapping. â€Å"What?† Bella asked. â€Å"It will be a more effective test if we don't cut corners, Bella,† Carlisle said. â€Å"Ifthe fetus is craving blood,† Edward explained, â€Å"it's not craving animal blood.† â€Å"It won't make a difference to you, Bella. Don't think about it,† Rosalie encouraged. Bella's eyes widened. â€Å"Who?† she breathed, and her gaze flickered to me. â€Å"I'm not here as a donor, Bells,† I grumbled. â€Å"‘Sides, it's human blood that thing's after, and I don't think mine applies – â€Å" â€Å"We have blood on hand,† Rosalie told her, talking over me before I'd finished, like I wasn't there. â€Å"For you – just in case. Don't worry about anything at all. It's going to be fine. I have a good feeling about this, Bella. I think the baby will be so much better.† Bella:s hand ran across her stomach. â€Å"Well,† she rasped, barely audible. â€Å"I'm starving, so I'll bet he is, too.† Trying to make another joke. â€Å"Let's go for it. My first vampire act.†

Nigerian Economy: Macroeconomic Analysis

sisNigeria – Country Report 2012 61310039 Indian School of Business 7/6/2012 Contents Economic Overview3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)3 GDP Composition4 Inflation4 Shadow Economy5 Trade Overview5 Foreign Debt7 Labor Market & Human Capital7 Population and Income Inequality8 Unemployment9 Currency10 Money Supply and Monetary Control10 Fiscal policy12 Exchange rates12 Interest Rates13 Foreign Direct Investment14 Globalization and Comparative Advantage14 Conclusion15 References16 Economic Overview Nigeria's economy is estimated to be worth about $262bn, making it one of the largest economies in Africa.The estimates and analysis of various indicators is discussed in the later sections. The country has fared better than many other countries during the global economic downturn, but systemic problems in infrastructure and the labor market mean that its position in the Economist Intelligence Unit's global rankings remains towards the bottom during the forecast period, at 75th out of 82 countries. Efforts to create a significantly more attractive business environment are likely to produce only modest results owing to the slow pace of more fundamental reforms. Nigeria has taken steps to simplify trade by working on its tariff structure.However, there is still a protectionist sentiment in the country. Cross border smuggling is still a major concern and is liable to remain an important feature of the Nigerian economy. The capacity and efficiency of Nigerian ports (Trade) have improved following the implementation of an ambitious concessioning program that transferred management of terminals to private operators. However, although the reforms have improved port operations and ship turnaround times, there remains the problem of corruption in the customs service, which can complicate and delay the clearance of goods. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)The latest GDP projection data as brought out by World Bank is $ 268. 5 billion (2013 F) and the country population is projected at 175 million translating into a GDP/Capita to 2,213. The Real GDP Growth for Nigeria has been at 6. 8 %. However, considering the disparity in the country’s infrastructure viz-a-viz other Asian developing nations the growth rate is not enough for substantial improvement. Nominal GDP| 2007| 2008| 2009| 2010| 2011| 2012(F)| 2013(F)| US$ bn| 166. 5| 208. 1| 169. 4| 196. 3| 244. 2| 262. 4| 268. 5| N bn| 20,941| 24,665| 25,225| 29,498| 37,590| 42,877| 46,720| Real GDP growth %| 6. | 6| 7| 7. 8| 7. 4| 6. 4| 6. 9| Source: Economic Intelligence Unit| GDP Composition In Nigeria, the Investment component of the GDP as compared to the private consumption and government is very low, hovering at 17 % approximately. A developing market is required to invest around 40 to 50% of GDP in capital investment for successive number of years. However that is not seen with Nigeria. Hence, the prospect of Nigeria as an investment destination appears to be grim in the near future. | 2007| 2008| 200 9| 2010| 2011| 2012 F| 2013 F| Private consumption| 6. 6| -34. 3| 6. 4| -26. 7| 11. 8| 9. | 10. 4| Government consumption| 90. 8| 4. 4| -8. 1| 17. 8| 12| 8. 5| 8| Gross fixed investment| 24. 5| -6. 8| 9. 1| -3. 6| 6. 5| 6| 6. 5| Exports of goods & services| -11. 7| 43. 4| -30| 11. 4| 11. 9| 10. 4| 12. 4| Source: Economic Intelligence Unit| The graph below gives the GDP contribution – Industry wise for Nigeria. Crude is one of the major contributors to the GDP. Hence, and rate fluctuations in the price of crude oil have added volatility in the Nigerian GDP. Inflation Despite monetary tightening carried out by the CBN in 2011, the forecast for inflation remains negative.Inflation is expected to increase to 12. 7% in 2012. Fiscal laxity by the states is one of the main reasons for this. In addition, the payment of the newly instituted minimum wages and the injection of funds into the bailed out banks, inflationary pressure is bound to continue for the rest of the year. It is exp ected moderate only in 2014 as a result of moderation in commodity prices. The April 2012 inflation data as obtained shows a Month-on-month inflation to be (0. 13%), Year-on-Year (12. 9%), 12-Month Avg. Chg. (11. 1%). The inflation rate is exceedingly high and is detrimental towards investment in the country.The Consumer Price Index and Nigerian Inflation rate is shown below. Source: Economic Intelligence Unit Shadow Economy The untaxed and unregulated revenues – by some estimates – account for between 40% and 45% of gross domestic product (GDP). Nigerians make most of their living, as street hawkers, minibus drivers, money changers or market traders. In spite of the abysmal performance of the country’s economy, poor infrastructure and unfriendly business environment Nigeria has huge potentials to be tapped because of its huge deposits of Natural Resources nd population that can be gainfully employed. The black economy accounts for a large part of the Nigerian e conomy. Trade Overview Nigeria has considerable natural resources such as oils, and the revenue from oil exports forms a major chunk of the Government fund. Nigeria has recently started a sovereign wealth fund and the excess returns from oil exports viz-a-viz projected returns is directed to this sovereign fund. This fund is building up at a slower pace as the revenue is being directed towards meeting government excess spending to meet the countries capital requirement.The country has been putting efforts to tighten the fiscal policy and the same has been reflected in their medium-term expenditure framework. The country has projected a year-on-year budget deficit of 1% of GDP. However, from the recent trends it appears that Nigeria will be able to sustain a year-on-year budget deficit of 2% given the prices of oil remain stable even though the current European turmoil and a slowdown in china can push oil prices down and lead to further increase in Nigeria’s Fiscal deficit.Nig eria intends borrowing from the international capital market for meeting its capital expenditure requirement in the near future. The total value of Nigeria's exports in the first quarter of 2012 is at about USD 30 billion, the exports to India has reached USD 4. 2 billion, compared to USD 3. 7 billion credited to the US in the period under review. Nigeria's export to India is mostly crude oil and cashew nuts while India exports pharmaceutical goods, machinery, electronics and rice. The US was trailed by the Netherlands with USD 2. billion, followed by Spain with USD 2. 4 billion and Brazil which recorded USD 2 billion. Nigeria is a member of the WTO and does not impose permanent import restrictions however it has a huge banned list of import goods which coupled with ad valorem tariffs have given rise to increase in smuggled goods. As such the restrictions do not seem to have benefited the local industries. There are specially designated export processing zones which provide benefits from tax, duties, foreign exchange restrictions and import-export restrictions.The Nigerian Export Credit Guarantee and insurance corporation (Nexim) provides insurance under the government’s export guarantee scheme. This has helped exporters in raising funds at subsidized rates for refinancing. Nigeria figures 133rd on the Doing Business in Index among 183 world economies and 15th among the 46 sub Saharan African economies. The trade balance of Nigeria for period 2007 to 2011 and forecasted data for 2012 and 2013 is given below. | 2007| 2008| 2009| 2010| 2011| 2012(F)| 2013(F)|Trade balance| 37,748| 45,885| 25,342| 20,237| 34,528| 34,131| 28,778| Goods: exports fob| 66,040| 85,729| 56,121| 73,698| 103,847| 114,068| 111,836| Goods: imports fob| -28,291| -39,844| -30,779| -53,461| -69,319| -79,937| -83,058| Services balance| -16,902| -22,113| -16,479| -19,231| -24,761| -24,278| -25,914| Income balance| -11,747| -15,059| -14,404| -18,623| -22,905| -20,913| -24,624| Current tra nsfers balance| 18,545| 19,366| 18,694| 20,092| 25,004| 27,387| 28,562| Current-account balance| 27,643| 28,079| 13,153| 2,476| 11,867| 16,327| 6,802| Source: Economic Intelligence Unit|Nigeria and its neighboring African nations have imposed strong continental Trade Barriers which is depriving the continent of new sources of economic growth, new jobs and leading to a sharp fall in poverty and other factors. However, many African countries are losing several billions of dollars in potential trade earnings every year, because of high trade barriers with neighboring countries. It is easier for Africa to trade with the rest of the world than with itself.The Policy progress in the nation has been restricted due to political instability and tussle between the presidency and senior economic team. Policies towards changes in exploiting the proceeds from fuel exports are always the concern restricting policy improvements. The country has huge limitation in the power sector and the governmen t has initiated privatization program focused mainly on the power sector, However the progress has been slow as a result of private-sector reluctance, the various vested interests involved and strong union opposition.This is limiting foreign investments in Nigeria. Nigeria urgently requires Tax reform for attracting investments in the country and this policy reform is high on the political agenda. However due to conflicting interests and the fragile nature of the Nigerian administration reforms are expected to be slow. Foreign Debt Due to the economic slowdown public sector revenue and expenditure has contracted in the past 3 years. As a result of the budget deficit, infrastructure is facing acute shortage which is mostly financed by internal public borrowing while also seeking access to external funding.The Nigerian government has set on the path of prudent reforms to reduce total spending while improving funding for capital requirements for efficient spending that will translate t o long term economic growth. The government also launched a Euro denominated bond in 2011 and expects to return to the international debt capital markets again in the next few years. Labor Market & Human Capital The education system of Nigeria is in a poor state unable to meet the educational requirement of the country. There are currently only 46 tertiary institutions in Nigeria providing education covering all functional areas.Out of the 42m Nigerian children who ought to be in primary school, less than 24m are in school. Out of the 33. 9m children of secondary school age, only 6. 4m are in secondary schools. The pass rate for JAMB examinations is about 20% – indicates poor quality of secondary school graduates. The educational system has not been tailored to meet developmental needs of the nation. Any foreign investment has to transfer both funds and human capital to the country. There are no improvements visible in the near vicinity.The Nigerian Labor market is marred wit h constraints and there appears little prospect in the near future of resolving many of the key constraints to improving the labor market in Nigeria. Most of the talented Nigerians prefer to move out of the country and the country is suffering from a ‘brain drain’. Nigeria has a large number of very capable professional and highly skilled workers in a range of sectors. Unfortunately for the country, large numbers, particularly in the medical profession, live and work overseas, and the restoration of civilian rule in 1999 has failed to bring an end to the brain drain’. Although labor law reform in 2005 weakened the capacity of the unions to organize political or sympathy strikes, the labor movement remains powerful, capable of organizing paralyzing national strikes. Value of indexa| | Global rankb| | Regional rankc| | 2006-10| 2011-15| 2006-10| 2011-15| 2006-10| 2011-15| 4. 4| 4. 6| 80| 80| 16| 15| a Out of 10. b  Out of 82 countries. c  Out of 17 countries: A lgeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, UAE, Angola, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa. Source: Economic Intelligence Unit| Population and Income Inequality The population in Nigeria is growing at a very fast pace, but given the poor state of the countries health care and educational system, this is only constraining the already dismal state of the country the growth rate is presented below, the high rate of population growth and the deteriorating state of infrastructure is not conducive enough for enticing foreign investment. Population (Million)| 2006| 2010| 2015| Total| 140. 4| 152. 2| 166. 7|Period averages (%)|   | 2006-10| 2011-15| Population growth|   | 2. 1| 1. 8| Labor force growth|   | 2. 4| 1. 9| Source: Economic Intelligence Unit| Poverty in Nigeria remains significant despite high economic growth. Nigeria retains a high level of poverty, with 63% living on below $1 daily, implying a decline in equity. There have been attempts at poverty alleviation, but the inequality has been rising. Income inequality worsened from 0. 43 to 0. 49 between 2004 and 2009. This is correlated with differential access to infrastructure and amenities.In particular, there are more rural poor than urban poor. This primarily results from the composition of Nigeria's economy. Oil exports contribute significantly to government revenues and about 15% of GDP, despite employing only a fraction of the population. Agriculture, however, contributes to about 45% of GDP, and employs close to 90% of the rural population. This incongruence is compounded by the fact that oil revenue is poorly distributed among the population, with higher government spending in urban areas than rurally.High unemployment rates have rendered personal incomes even more divergent. The graph below gives a comparison of the population below poverty line in relation to the total  Nigerian population. Data Source: Economic Intelligence Unit Unemp loyment According to the ‘2011 Annual Socio-Economic Report' released by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, the total number of unemployed people have increased from approximately 7 million in 2006 to 16 million in 2011. In 2011, approximately 2. 1 million people were newly unemployed.The report has also predicted the new entrants into the unemployed pool to be around 8. 5 million in 2015. The increase is also interestingly explained by the tendency of Nigerian university graduates to stay away from labor intensive work. They are now ready to wait for a white collar job thus resulting in the entry of new university graduates into the unemployment pool. The total number of employed labor force has remained fairly constant from 2006 to 2011 at around 51 million. However, 10 million new people have been added to the labor force during 2006-2011.The increase in labor force could be explained by the steady increase in the number of universities, polytechnics and colleges of educati on. While the enrollment in universities and polytechnics has decreased from around 460,000 in 2006 to 340,000 to 2011, enrollment in colleges of education has increased during the same period. Whereas the enrollment in state and federal institutions has decreased during 2006-2011, enrollment in private institutions has increased steadily. According to the report, the increase in unemployment rate has been kept in check by Nigerian government's employment policies.The unemployment rate in rural areas was 25. 6% and 17. 1% in urban areas. The total national unemployment rate was 23. 9% in 2011. Total unemployment rate amongst males was 23. 5% in 2011 while the same rate amongst females was 24. 3%. The report explains that married women who previously stayed out of the labor force have now started entering the market for jobs due to a raise in claim for financial independence. More women are also now forced to enter the labor market because of the need to supplement the income of male s in families.The unemployment rate has been consistently growing in Nigeria due to lack of industries, political stability and a myriad of other reasons. Unemployment is leading to crime and shadow economy which is further hindering investments in the country. Data Source: Economic Intelligence Unit Currency The Legal Tender followed in Nigeria is the Naira (sign:  ? ;  code:  NGN). The Central Bank of Nigeria referred as CBN is the sole authority responsible for issuing and maintaining the volume of the currency in the Nigerian economy.The currency was adopted by Nigeria on 1st Jan 1973 replacing the pound that was being followed since the colonial days. Money Supply and Monetary Control The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is the central bank of Nigeria. Since the global financial crisis of 2008-09, maintaining adequate liquidity and averting a total collapse of the banking system has been the main focus of the CBN. The CBN uses the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to anchor short t erm money market rates and other interest rates in the economy.Open market operations conducted through the Treasury Bills auction is the major instrument of monetary policy. The CBN also uses discount window operations (including standing lending and deposit facilities, repo and reverse repo operations) and Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) in monetary management. The banking crisis of 2009 and the subsequent reform initiated in the banking sector has complicated the monetary policy. The central bank also ensures that there is sufficient lending in key sectors such as agriculture.Since 1977, Nigeria has had an Agric Credit Guarantee Scheme (ACGS) under the management of the central bank. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is responsible for maintaining a balance between its objective of managing inflation and the government's aim of reducing the cost of borrowing by the private sector to encourage investment in productive activities. The CBN is currently pursuing the former objective, having increased its prime interest rate six times during 2011: the Central Bank is attempting to counter what it sees as high inflationary expectations embedded in the system.As the forecast period progresses and the inflation outlook improves, the focus of the CBN will return to easing monetary policy and boosting lending to productive sectors. Nevertheless, this has been complicated by the banking crisis of 2009 and the subsequent reform program put in place by the Central Bank, which is likely to mean that risk aversion among the banks persists into the first part of the forecast period at least. Below is the summary of the key Monetary Indicators for Nigeria. Monetary indicators| 2007a| 2008a| 2009a| 2010a| 2011a| 2012b| 2013b| 2014b| 2015b| 2016b| |Exchange rate N:US$ (av)| 125. 8| 118. 5| 148. 9| 150. 3| 153. 9| 160. 7| 174. 0| 172. 0| 174. 0| 176. 0| Exchange rate N:US$ (year-end)| 118. 0| 132. 6| 149. 6| 150. 7| 158. 3| 170. 8| 173. 0| 173. 0| 175. 0| 177. 0| Exchange rate N:↚ ¬ (av)| 172. 44| 174. 33| 207. 46| 199. 42| 214. 19| 209. 71| 224. 46| 217. 58| 215. 33| 221. 76| Exchange rate N:â‚ ¬ (year-end)| 173. 66| 184. 49| 215. 49| 201. 31| 210. 42| 221. 23| 222. 31| 215. 39| 219. 63| 223. 02| Real effective exchange rate, CPI-based (av)| 38. 05| 42. 32| 38. 59| 42. 11| 42. 74c| 46. 39| 46. 44| 50. 42| 53. 60| 56. 5| Purchasing power parity N:US$ (av)| 71. 31| 80. 30| 88. 60| 99. 68| 115. 8c| 120. 9| 121. 0| 123. 9| 129. 2| 136. 3| Money supply (M2) growth (%)| 58. 1| 53. 6| 20. 6| 3. 7| -0. 5| 8. 7| 20. 5| 19. 6| 17. 5| 18. 5| Domestic credit growth (%)| 358. 3| 55. 9| 41. 1| 14. 1| 28. 1| 7. 9| 21. 5| 20. 7| 18. 2| 17. 7| Commercial banks' prime rate (av; %)| 16. 9| 15. 5| 18. 4| 17. 6| 16. 0| 16. 0| 14. 0| 13. 0| 13. 5| 13. 8| Deposit rate (av; %)| 10. 3| 12. 0| 13. 3| 6. 5| 5. 7| 6. 0| 5. 8| 5. 8| 5. 8| 5. 5| Money-market rate (av; %)| 6. 9| 8. 2| 3. 8| 3. 8| 8. 5c| 8. 8| 7. 0| 6. 5| 6. | 6. 0| a  Actual. b  Economist Intelligence Unit foreca sts. c  Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. Source: EIU| Fiscal policy While Nigeria’s fiscal policy during the last half of the decade has been favoring expansive expenditure in the productive sectors, there is growing pressure to introduce tough, unpopular market reforms to tighten the fiscal policy. However it will be difficult to do so considering the different interest groups that the government needs to placate and wider legislature that favors greater government expenditure to counter the crippling infrastructure deficit.Even as investment in infrastructure remains critical, how the government manages to bring down the share of recurrent expenditures while improving the quality of capital expenditure is the key challenge. Another challenge for the government will be how it manages its dependence on oil prices, the key component of its revenue. A return to recession in Europe or a less than expected growth in China could bring down the oil prices. Exchange rates Th e Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been responsible for managing the exchange rate and this was being done by auctioning of foreign currencies.The CBN sets the exchange rate. However, Nigeria’s currency fluctuations is correlated to fluctuations in the oil prices. In 2007, the Naira saw significant appreciation viz-a-viz the dollar due to increase in Global crude prices. Nigeria’s central Bank intends making the Naira exchange rates floating and policy decisions are being formulated towards this objective. The CBN also intends to make the exchange rate independent to the extent possible and aims at intervening only to meet defined policy objectives.The country has seen a huge depreciation of the Naira in the past 3 Decades, presently owing to the stable and strong crude prices the currency is considerably stable but is forecasted to slip further if the Global Economic crisis continues to deter. Source: http://www. exchangerates. org. uk/ Interest Rates The CBN kept it s benchmark interest rate at 12%. The CBN will find it hard to balance its objective of managing inflation and the government’s aim of reducing the cost of borrowing by the private sector to boost investment.Nigeria has seen a slowdown in economic growth in its economy as a result of slackening in global economic activities. As the tight liquidity condition persists, short term interest rates have been rising for the past couple of years. Another cause of concern for the CBN was the slowdown in interbank lending, which prompted the CBN to guarantee placements in the interbank market. This also helped bring down the interest rates in the short term money markets, such as the interbank call rates.The above table indicates the Monetary Aggregates and Interest Rates as obtained in 2010. Foreign Direct Investment Although the government will continue to welcome foreign direct investment (FDI), the level of FDI outside the oil and gas sector will remain low in relation to the poten tial size of the market. This reflects the complexities of the local business environment, together with the bureaucracy, corruption, low productivity, poor infrastructure and low income levels that restrict the potential market.The salient feature of the policy is enumerated. Full foreign ownership is allowed in all sectors apart from banking, although the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been more relaxed on the issue since the 2009 crisis in the sector and the subsequent need to recapitalize the affected banks. A new bill proposes to outlaw discretionary awards of oil and gas contracts, and stipulates that licenses must be given through â€Å"open, transparent and competitive† bidding processes.Nevertheless, a number of Asian investors, from China, India and South Korea in particular, who have shown keen interest in entering Nigeria on the basis that they concurrently develop local infrastructure, may still find themselves the preferred bidder on new acreage. There is als o likely to be a continued bias towards policy favoring local business, as evidenced by the recent local content bill for the oil industry that gives indigenous firms priority in the awarding of oil concessions and requires foreign companies to employ more local staff.As a result, and with other countries set to improve more rapidly, Nigeria will slip in the global rankings from 67th to 71st out of 82  countries, and from 12th to 13th in the Middle East and Africa region. Value of indexa| | Global rankb| | Regional rankc| | 2006-10| 2011-15| 2006-10| 2011-15| 2006-10| 2011-15| 5. 1| 4. 6| 67| 71| 12| 13| a Out of 10. b  Out of 82 countries. c  Out of 17 countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, UAE, Angola, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa.Source: Economic Intelligence Unit| Foreign direct investment, net inflows (% of GDP) in Nigeria was 2. 99 as of 2010. Its highest value over the past 40 years was 8. 28 in 1994, while its lowest value was -1. 15 in 1980. The below outlines the Annual inflows of FDI along with its percentage composition of the gross fixed investment. (US$ m)| 2006| 2007| 2008| 2009| 2010| 2011| 2012| 2013| 2014| 2015| Annual inflows of FDI| 4,854| 6,035| 5,487| 5,787| 3,000| 3,500| 6,000| 7,500| 7,250| 7,250| % of gross fixed investment| 40. 4| 39. 7| 32. 1| 35. 3| 13. 7| 14. | 20. 5| 20. 9| 16. 8| 14. 2| Source: Economic Intelligence Unit| Globalization and Comparative Advantage Nigeria has not benefited considerably from globalization due to mono-cultural export, inability to attract increased foreign investments and huge indebtedness. And the way forward for Nigeria is to focus towards diversification of exports, debt reduction and expand developmental cooperation. Nigeria got connected to the rest of the world with the arrival of British in the Year 1539 and by the 1800’s Nigeria was under complete control of the British Empire.And since then Nigeriaâ€℠¢s trade has been heavily dependent on British trade. Nigeria has been a country rich in natural resources and traded these resources for weapons and tools. This asymmetric trade is the reason for the wide variance in the distribution of the nation’s wealth. The country received its independence in 1960 and during that time the Farm products was its major export. Post-independence, farm products constituted the major portion of Nigeria’s Trade. The six major agricultural products then were cocoa, rubber, palm oil, groundnut, cotton and palm kernel.And this constituted 69. 4% of its total GDP for the year 1963/64. The other contributor to exports was oil. However, during that period oil was priced low at $3. 8 per barrel and thus was not much lucrative. The 1970’s saw Nigeria’s fortune turn with the jump in fuel price by almost 4 times. Nigeria had high grade petroleum reserves and these reserves were easier to extract. The petroleum price rose to $14. 7 p er barrel by January 1974 and rates continued to soar reaching a high of $38. 77 per barrel in 1981.Within the same period, total revenue from oil rose correspondingly. By 1978, oil contributed 89. 1% of Nigeria’s export and in the same year contribution from agriculture plummeted to 6. 8% of exports. The overdependence of the country’s economy on oil exports has seriously hindered the development in other spheres. Globalization poses a multitude of challenges on Nigeria. The countries very poorly on education, health, agriculture and industrial development and therefore it is imperative that Nigeria focuses on these area to fundamentally transform the nation.The country requires focusing on technological development and science and Technology are required to be central theme of their Developmental Strategy. The Country also requires focusing on basic Infrastructure such as power supply and telecommunications and these must exist regularly and uninterruptedly. Also, in dustrialization, including manufacturing and fabrication must be brought in at the center place. There is a need to revitalize agriculture by utilizing the technologies in the field and shifting to mechanized farming. ConclusionThere is an element of risk of doing business in Nigeria even though the debt of the country is in a manageable state. A prolonged European crisis and a slowdown in China will lead to dip in oil prices and Nigeria will face difficulties in meeting its deficit requirements. The currency of Nigeria-Naira is currently seen stable and after depreciating by an average of 6. 3% per year in 2012-13 to N174:US$1, the naira is expected to moderate more gently in subsequent years, to N176:US$1 in 2016, though the currency has seen a continuous downslide when data is compared for the last three decades.After the Banking crisis of 2009, the banking sector is skeptical on lending to private sector, however the confidence is returning. The political risk of the country is seen as high due to factions in the government and the rise in Islamist fundamentalism. Piracy is also a major phenomenon in the Gulf of Guinea which makes Nigeria’s coastline a risky shipping port. Nigeria declared a state of emergency in January 2012 in the northern parts due to a recent spate of terror attacks; however no civil war or major instability is expected in the short run.The government has been accused of largely ignoring public grievances like unemployment, poverty, inequality in wealth and corruption. Unless the government steps up to address these issues and establish credibility there is risk of escalation. The President Mr. Good luck Jonathan has recently commissioned investigations into allegations of corruptions in the oil subsidies and replaced the Chief of the Police for failing to root out infiltration by the insurgents into the government offices.However the effectiveness of these measures will depend on their enforcement. The future of the Nigerian ec onomy therefore depends on stabilizing governance and enabling the parliament to unlock major reforms in the Oil and Gas sector. References 1. Economic Intelligence Unit – (http://country. eiu. com/Nigeria) 2. CBN Monetary Survey 3. Exchange Rates – (http://www. exchangerates. org. uk/) 4. Shadow Economy Reference – (http://news. bbc. co. uk/) 5. Currency Reference – (http://www. cenbank. org/)

Supply Chain Management-A Case of AmerTac Inc Term Paper

Supply Chain Management-A Case of AmerTac Inc - Term Paper Example According to Blackwell, companies sustain competitive advantages via information flow management which is significant principle of supply chain as a system. There are three important flows within supply chain, information flow, material flow and flow of finance or capital. Similarly, as per Cooper and Lambert’s assessment, effective supply chain means integrated supply chain as integration is core element required in supply chain management system (Baihaqi & Beaumont, 2005, pp. 2). Collaboration and relationship are further essentials of supply chain. If there is not strong collaboration or relationship within supply chain partners (suppliers, manufacturers and distributors), it is impossible to sustain the entire system of SCM (Baihaqi & Beaumont, 2005). Critical Evaluation of a Supply Chain CaseCompany Overview AmerTac is one of the renowned companies in consumer electronics, based in New Jersey since 1937 (Bloomberg, 2013). The company offers wide range of products includin g decorative hardware, lighting fixtures, night lighting fixtures, in-house lighting and plant accessories. Moreover, it offers ceramics, mirrors, and accent lighting fixtures to meet the diversified need of customers. Being a well known company AmerTac distributes its products to almost all popular retailers including Wal-Mart, Lowe’s and The Home Depot (AmerTac, 2013). This gets possible by company’s wide ranging supply chain network which is channelized to all most all local pick points. (Baihaqi & Beaumont, 2005).

Language Diversity in International Management Teams Essay - 3

Language Diversity in International Management Teams - Essay Example Just like a delicate flower which has, for the first time, opened its brilliant petals in a show of defiance against the mundane, the skier illustrates their prowess for danger by their first hill selection. The individual also looks for potential obstacles which can block their path on the way down, making a mental map to avoid various trees or boulders on their decided path. A skier is a strategist, paying careful attention to potential roadblocks and then determining the most appropriate course of least resistance. A skier is a sea of troubles. All new skiers inevitably collide with others during their first trips down the mountain as they become familiar with their surroundings. Some laugh at their incompetence and others do not, much like in the real world where one cannot make everyone happy no matter how hard they attempt to do so. A skier is a carnival ride. The beloved Octopus ride, with this gyrating and spinning two-man cars, lurches side to side and vertically, rocking the carnival scene with a wild presentation of shaking and the provision of laughing riders. A new skier who has not yet mastered the art of balance will flail their arms wildly about, lurching down the hill in the awkward frenzy, giggling at their own inefficiency as they gyrate down the slope. Language plays a very important role in the critical thinking process, due largely to the fact that language is used to promote positive social interaction, improve interpersonal comprehension, and overcome certain social misunderstandings (Vogler, 2007). Critical thinking involves being able to assess the person’s environment or situation and look for an appropriate response or solution to the scenario by using logic, reasoning, persuasion, or simply good judgment based on social expectations.  

Leading a Team in Crisis Situations Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words

Leading a Team in Crisis Situations - Essay Example I chose this topic because of its importance, significance, and relevance in the contemporary age. Everything has changed over the time, and this has had a great impact on the way organizations function. As a leader, the responsibility of adopting the right strategy in these times of change fundamentally rests upon the shoulders of the leader. Change in leadership is inevitable. A leader is frequently exposed to circumstances that generate the need for change. A leader must be intelligent and proactive enough to adapt to these changes and make the wisest decision considering the needs of the changed circumstances. The experiences I have shared in this paper discuss what strategies I have employed to deal with the challenges arising as a consequence of changes that took place, and how those strategies helped me achieve my objectives. Each experience that I have shared demonstrates a different kind of change and accordingly, a different strategy I adopted to lead my team to success. Qu estions that I intend to answer by discussing my personal experiences of change and leadership include but are not limited to; A leader is needed in every organization of any volume, from large corporations to task forces designed to achieve petty tasks. Subordinates look forward to the leader for the establishment of goals and milestones, as well as support, resources, and motivation for their achievement. The behavior of a leader plays a decisive role in the leader’s success. â€Å"The behavior of the leader and the behavior of the group members are inextricably interwoven, and the behavior of both is determined to a great degree by formal requirements imposed by the institution of which the group is a part† (Halpin, n.d., p. 172). There are several conclusions that I can draw from the experience I have shared in the Case I. Firstly, focusing upon making positive advances instead of stopping behaviors is a more effective and useful approach for a leader. Secondly, it is easier for the team to commence actions that accord with their preferred traits. â€Å"Research once again has confirmed wh at we’ve always suspected - your boss can cause you stress, induce depression and anxiety or even trigger the onset of serious illness. It is not just bad managers who can negatively affect employee health, but it is also the lackadaisical and mediocre who can put employees on the sick list† (Williams, 2011). Thirdly, the desired results can be achieved by using different preferred traits in different situations. Behavioral solutions can be customized for different personalities as per their individualistic preferences.

The Christians creation story Coursework Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

The Christians creation story - Coursework Example The Heart-of-Sky was responsible for the creation process in the Popul Vuh as was God for the Christians. The creation process for the two stories was made into a reality through the uttering of words. The creation of the human beings was done in collaboration with other parties as it is the case in the two stories. In both stories, the supernatural being is at some point angered by the actions of the human being is chronological and God creates day and night on the first day. According to the Popul Vuh, the Heart-of-Sky separated the sky from the earth on the first day. In the Creation story, God’s attempt of creating the human being was not a failure like stated in the Popul Vuh. In the Popul Vuh, the Heart-of-Sky only created humans to serve him, but in the Christians creation story, God created humans to rule over other animals and fill the world. The Popul Vuh illustrates a rebellion of other animals and creations against the humans which is not stated in the Christians c reation story. When Olurun noticed that the land of Olukum was filled with water, and there was a need to fill it with the land, he told Obata of this idea. Obata took up the challenge that he would undertake the requirements of creating that land. Obata approached Orunmila, who gave him a couple of instructions, to be followed by the creation of land, to cover the sea. He would go down into the sea using a chain made of gold. With him, he should have a shell filled with sand, a white hen that will help disperse the sand.

Economic Race and Gender Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Economic Race and Gender - Essay Example In the chapter five of the book, the writer laments on certain differences that exist in certain quarters of the working fold. In some sectors of the economy, males are actually paid much more than females for the same piece of work done – something the writers lament about. But they are however skeptical and hopes very little for a change pointing to the fact that contracts between employers and employees are mostly kept secret and between the two parties and so evidence for litigation, justice and fairness in issues of difference in occupations and earning are mostly not encouraged. The human capital model is further considered in chapter six of the book. Reviewing beyond the book, Polachek (2004) explains that â€Å"human capital model predicts a smaller gender wage gap as male-female lifetime work expectations become more similar. According to the writers, human capital is the most essential resource for the running of all organizations, institutions and offices – thus the labor market. This means that there is no way the labor market can be sustained or grown without the inputs it gets from the labor market.

Micrsoft Technologies Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Micrsoft Technologies - Essay Example In addition, these applications help in tracking invoices and paying or receiving bills, and performing duties of an office assistant such as offering reminder for important meeting, or time for acquiring new set of supply i.e. used as digital assistant interface. Mobile applications in business have a number of limitations. Firstly, these applications are small in size to be able operate within small memory and storage space available in the phone, and hence cannot handle large volumes of data. Secondly, mobile phones use Wi-Fi protocol to transmit data. Thus, most of the applications are susceptible to viruses. Lastly, some mobile phone applications for businesses are constantly evolving and very complicated to use, and therefore ordinary business may have find problematic to employ in their businesses. Microsoft Access, also called Ms Access, is database management application under the Microsoft office suit. It is a useful information management application that primarily stores data, allows analysis of the stored data and has mechanism for reporting information of the stored data. It is handier in managing large amounts of data that would otherwise be inefficient to handle with spreadsheets. In addition, MS acess allows an individual to store multiple related data together, create relations, allows automation of repeated processes through Macros, and eliminates unnecessary duplication of data which would otherwise jeopardize the accuracy of any analyzed data. Ms Access has inadequacies despite its ability to provide database solutions for small and medium business entities. It can only support databases, records and fields, of up to 2 GB and a maximum of 255 simultaneous database connections. For it to support larger quantities of data i.e. greater that 2GB and connections exceeding 255, the tables and applications should be

Breastfeeding is better for your baby Essay Example for Free

Breastfeeding is better for your baby Essay Among the many decision a woman faces when she is pregnant, is whether or not she will breastfeed her child. In our society and in this day and age, this has become a matter of choice as opposed to long ago where formula was nonexistent and the only means of nurturing your baby was to breastfeed. Many women are oblivious to the health risks their baby may endure having not being breastfed. Research and studies show that babies who are breastfed have better health among other things if they are breastfed. To add to that, formula companies tend to obscure the truth and bribe the doctors in to promoting their product. This essay aims to investigate these issues and address the matter at hand by stating why it is a much better choice to breastfeed a baby. As I mentioned above, whether or not a women wants to breastfeed or formula feed is now a matter of choice. Before I move forward, I want to explain about the history of breastfeeding and formula feeding. Before the modern era, breasfeeding was usually the normal procedure for feeding an infant. If a woman had problems breastfeeding her baby, the family would usually hire a wet nurse to nurture the baby in place of the mother. This was considered very normal. As a matter of fact, wet nurses were chosen with the utmost care, because it was vital and essential for a baby to receive the right amount of nutrients. Another alternative to wet nurses was cow’s milk, or in correct terms the process of â€Å"dry nursing† was established. Wet nursing and dry nursing were the common alternatives to breastfeeding during the early 19th century. However, in the turn of events another breast milk substitute had evolved. Formula had been created and was in lieu of breastfeeding. One of the biggest known named companies of today, Nestle was a big contributor to the establishment and creation of formula. Add another century, and formula feeding is not considered the norm in many societies. Because formula is widely accepted as a means of nurturing a baby, production of formula has boomed and many formula manufacturers thrust to advertize their product. Because of this, many doctors have received a cut for promoting formula from these major manufacturers. While the new mother who has just given birth to her baby feels that formula feeding is better since the doctor recommended it, little does she know that the doctor is doing what he was endorsed to do. Could this mean that many doctors are withholding the truth for money? It may very well be and I will further discuss this issue. According to studies done in the US, fewer than half of the babies are exclusively breastfed during their first two days in the hospital. By the time they are six months old, only 19 percent of US babies receive any breast milk† (Coburn, 2000, 1). This is in large part due to the doctor’s orders. Little do these mothers know that the doctors are pushing formula products on these new mothers because they are obliged to do so under a contract. Coburn also states â€Å"To promote artificial feeding, formula manufacturers spend millions of dollars securing exclusive distribution deals for formula samples, at a yearly average of $6,000 to $8,000 per doctor† (p. 2). Many formula companies distribute their products to hospitals to advertize their formula. It is a form of bribery, because if you give the doctors and physicians money they will without a doubt encourage the recommendation of that particular product. Or in some instances, mothers are given a gift basket upon delivery of their new baby. This gift basket has formula in it. In doing this â€Å"research shows this tacit endorsement of the hospitals part is so effective in establishing brand loyalty that 93 percent of mothers who artificially feed continue to use the brand of formula given to them by the hospital† (Coburn, 2000, p. ). There is a lot of brainwashing going on just for a buck. Since these mothers are now formula feeding instead of breastfeeding they begin to see the effect on their income. It is much more costly than breastfeeding. Some mothers even dilute their formula to make it last a little longer before going out and buying some more. This in turn is very nutrition-depleting. I will elaborate further on nutrition, but in the end these formula manufacturers are competing not with their rival companies, but with breastfeeding itself. And because of this, many mothers are caught in the middle of this war not aware that breastfeeding is the best means to nurture her baby. As mentioned above, breastfeeding is the natural way to nurture a baby. It is also better for the baby and there are many studies to prove this. Breastfeeding does help prevent a number of sicknesses a baby may endure. As mentioned by Laura Sterling a pediatrician â€Å"I discuss the impact of breastfeeding on incidence of otisis, media, asthma, obesity and all-cause diarrhea. I also counsel that breast milk may decrease severity of diarrhea because it is much easier on the digestive system than formula† (Sterling, 2003, p. 3). Obesity as Sterling mentions has also been decreased when a child is breastfed rather than formula fed. If a baby is breastfed for at least 3-5 months, obesity in the US will reduce 35 %. Carol Campbell states â€Å"infants who were fed breast milk more than infant formula milk, or who were breast fed for longer periods, had a low risk of being overweight during older childhood and adolescence† (2000, p. 102). If we look at breastfeeding on a global perspective, around the world breastfeeding is encouraged as well. In Bangladesh for example, infant mortality rates are severely high. Penny Van Esterick states that any decrease in breastfeeding would definitely increase infant mortality (2003, p. 57). Also, many countries around the world that use water to create the formula aren’t aware of the toxins the water may contain, thus making the baby very sick. A mother passes on various nutrients to her child when she breastfeeds, something that artificial milk does not do. A random study also concluded that when babies’ breastfeed they are more likely not to experience pain while undergoing minor procedures. We can also look at breastfeeding from an anthropological standpoint. Anthropologist Shannen L. Robson stated â€Å"For most pormate species the period of accelerated growth ends shortly after birth, but for humans it continues for a year postnatally, when infants are nutritionally dependant on breast milk. A pattern of early postnatal brain growth that is unique among mammals must require a unique milk to supply the needs of the developing human infant (2004, p. 19). So as we may see, there are many benefits, an infinite amount of studies concluding that breastfeeding is much better for a baby as opposed to formula feeding. Concluding my essay it is evident I am pro breastfeeding. It is much healthier for your baby as studies are there to prove this. Not only that, it is eye-opening to know that doctors withhold telling their expecting mother patients that breastfeeding is the better choice all for the means of gaining more money. It is also interesting to note, that women who breastfeed are more likely to lose more weight effectively than their formula feeding counterparts. Who doesn’t want to lose weight after giving birth? It is much more advantageous to breastfeed, especially when it is 2 in the morning and your newborn is crying their lungs out because they want to be fed. I think getting up picking up your newborn and breastfeeding them is much better than having to warm and prepare the formula in a zombielike state.

The Effect of Celebrity Endorsement on Consumer Buying Behavior Essay Example for Free

The Effect of Celebrity Endorsement on Consumer Buying Behavior Essay The crescendo of celebrities endorsing brands has been steadily increasing over the past 20 years or so. Marketers overtly acknowledge the power of celebrity in influencing buyers purchase decision. They have firm believe that likeability or a favorable attitude towards a brand is created by the use of a celebrity. The crore of rupees spent per year on celebrity endorsement contracts show that celebrities like Amitabh Bachchan, Sharukh khan and Sachin Tendulkar play an important role for the advertising industry. It is an established fact that celebrity endorsement can bestow unique features or special attributes upon a product that it may have lacked otherwise. In India from late 1970s and early 80s the new trend in advertising started. Brands started being endorsed by celebrities. Hindi film and TV stars as well as sportspersons were roped in to endorse prominent brands. Advertisements featuring stars like Late Jalal Agha (Pan Parag), Tabassum (Prestige cookers), Sunil Gavaskar for Dinesh Suiting, Ravi Shastri and Vivian Richards (Vimal), Persis Khambhata and Kapil Dev (Palmolive Shaving cream) became common . Though marketers should remember that celebrities are mere living beings like us and if they can highlight the benefits or advantages of a brand they can also have some uncanny negative impact. Theory and practice suggests that the use of stars and their unleashing power in advertising generate a lot of publicity and attention from the public but the underline questions are, do these stars really help a brand by increasing its sales? On the other hand, can they really have an Impact on the persons consumption pattern, thereby changing his brand preference? How an advertisement featuring a celebrity can influence consumers buying decision and can create an association between a brand and a common man. To answer these questions, the article will examine the relationship between celebrity endorsements and brands, and the impact of celebrity endorsement on consumers buying behaviour as well as how consumer makes brand preferences. We will apply a wide range of accepted principles of how consumers brand attitudes and preferences can be influenced, how buyers behavior can be influenced, how buyers behavior can be molded. We will use the principles of credibility of source and attractiveness, the match-up hypothesis, the consumer decision-making model and the communication model to understand this phenomenon. Brand- A layman  perspective Brand is the proprietary visual, emotional, rational and cultural image that you can associate with a company or the product. Few examples will bring home the meaning i.e. Amul utterly butterly delicious; Coke – thanda matlab coca-cola; Pepsi – Yeh dil mange more; Kurkure- Masti bole to kurkure and Daewoo ka India. These examples convey one message that when people watch advertisement a connect is being created and result is that people go for experience of buying. People feel by using the brand they will portray certain traits or characteristics that otherwise they do not have. This generates a certain level of emotional affiliation and a sense of fulfillment. It is this emotional relationship with brands that make them so powerful. Advertisements enforces what exactly the brand stands for and what to expect by its consumption and above all what factors, features and attributes makes it better from competition. Advertisements along with other marketing efforts generate expectations and feelings in a customer and force them to think when they see or hear the brand name. This Thinking process and emotional bonding gets more mature and relevant when a celebrity endorses the brand. The subjective intangible feelings of a customer become objective and tangible in the form of celebrity and the level of expectations will rise. The customer will start to perceive himself in the reference frame of the celebrity after the brand or the advertised product has been purchased or consumed by him. Celebrity and a Brand Star power in India can be gauged by the successful endorsements done by Sharukh Khan (Pepsi, Hyundai Santro, Sunfeast, and Navratan etc.), Amitabh Bachchan, Sachin Tendulkar, Rahul Dravid, Hrithik Roshan and the others. The inevitable question is, if and how the lively interest of the public in the rich and famous can be efficiently and effectively used by companies to promote their brands and consequently to increase their sales revenues. This fact can be brought out by using certain examples i.e. Mr. Amitabh Bachchan promoting Cadbury chocolates after the fiasco of infestation when the image of Cadbury India went very low in the eyes of people. Soon the company found a perfect fit and a reliable celebrity to transmit the correct message and help regenerating the lost trust. The fit between the product and celebrity  is evident as Mr. Bachchan and Cadbury chocolates both have tested troubled times and still they stand tall and the love and trust they both share with the people al l across India. This is a live example of how a celebrity brought certain attributes to a product like chocolate. Actor Sharukh khan has also endorsed diversified products. His endorsement basket is ranging from Hyundai Santro to Sunfeast biscuits on one hand and from Compaq computers to Videocon electronics on the other. According to Advertising research companies both the actors are doing well and the ad spent on both by the companies is increasing at a phenomenal rate, so does their basket of endorsements. These actors bring reliability and trust in the brand and above all, they help in increasing the sales revenues. Celebrity endorsements are powerful, has become evident from the above two examples but, why is it so? This power is offered by the following elements, which also creates a Top of the Mind Position. * Instant Awareness, knowledge about the brand and easy recall. * Values and image of the brand is defined, highlighted and refreshed by the celebrity. * The celebrity adds new edge and dimension to the brand. * Credibility, trust, association, aspiration and connectivity to brand. * Belief in efficiency and new appearance that will result in at least trial usage. Understanding Consumer Behaviour Consumer behaviour is the study of how people buy, what they buy, when they buy and why they buy. It blends elements from psychology, sociology, sociopsychology, anthropology and economics. It attempts to understand the buyer decision-making process, both individually and in groups. It studies characteristics of individual consumers such as demographics, psychographics, and behavioral variables in an attempt to understand peoples wants. It also tries to assess influences on the consumer from groups such as family, friends, reference groups, and society in general. The study and knowledge of consumer behavior helps firms and organizations to improve their marketing strategies and product offerings. Following are the important issues that have significant influence on consumers psyche  and their ability to take decisions: †¢ The psychology of how consumers think, feel, reason, and select between different alternatives (e.g., brands, products); †¢ The psychology of how the consumer is influenced by his or her environment (e.g., culture, family, signs, media); †¢ The behavior of consumers while shopping or making other marketing decisions; †¢ Limitations in consumer knowledge or information processing abilities influence decisions and marketing outcome; †¢ How consumer motivation and decision strategies differ between products that differ in their level of importance or interest that they entail for the consumer; and †¢ How marketers can adapt and improve their marketing campaigns and marketing strategies to more effectively reach the consumer. †¢ Their Age, Religion, Culture, Income, informal group and Referent Group. Understanding these issues helps us adapt our strategies by taking the consumer into consideration. Traditional Factors affecting consumer decision making There are several factors that affect consumers decision to purchase a brand and a product. These factors though at time are not very much visible but they make an impact and affects sales of a product or brand up to a great extent. The table below shows some of these factors. Impact of a Brand on consumer purchase decision Research studies have proven that known products and names are sold more than unknown ones. Therefore, a known brand or an optimally exposed brand will find more recognition and buyers in the market in comparison to completely unknown or unexposed brand. Recognition of brand and its significance along with the traditional factors plays a very significant role in consumer decision-making process. More or less every consumer has a brand preference and given the affordability and societal norms, each buyer would like to buy and consume one of the highly acceptable, recognizable, and reputed brands. The above given model explains the important role that a brand plays in three different stages of consumers purchase decision making. A consumer start collecting data or information about his favourite brand than he keeps his favourite as one of the alternatives and he evaluate his selected brand against all available options and on finding it suitable or best among all options based upon a qualitative and quantitative evaluation he will ultimately purchase the selected or favourite brand. The diagram above explains how various traditional factors along with brand preference interact during purchase decision process and finally results into a consumers final product choice or ultimate purchase. Celebrity and a brand Surveys suggest that compared to any other types of endorsers, famous people achieve a higher degree of attention and recall. They increase awareness of a companys advertising as well as help in retention of message in the psyche of the audience. They can also help the company in reducing their expenditure on Media and other forms of publicity. An example will bring more clarity, When S Kumars, a known textile brand entered into readymade garments business they used Hrithik Roshan, then the hottest advertising icon for their launch advertising for TAMARIND, now one of the premium readymade brands. They reckoned that they have spent 40-50 percent less on media due to sheer impact of using hottest star like Hrithik. The Ad recall was as high as 70 percent and the campaign can be termed as a great success. Celebrities also create positive feelings towards brands, connect user to brand and are perceived by consumers as more entertaining. Using a celebrity in advertising or for any, other type of communication for brand building is likely to positively affect consumers brand preference, brand attitude, brand association and purchase intentions. To ensure positive results, however, it is critical for advertisers to have a clear understanding of consumers reactions and reinforcement of celebrity endorsement. The impact of celebrity endorsement on any brand as well as on consumers purchase decision is very critical. Source Credibility Central goal of advertising is the convincing of consumers and persuasion to purchase, the ultimate objective, though not openly spoken, is to some how attract consumers to the market offering of the company, generating positive attitude, reinforce positive association and ultimately to generate sales,  may be a trial purchase. At later stages, the sponsor may work towards creating a brand loyalty but generating initial sales or increasing the existing sales is the primary objective. In this respect, the credibility of an endorser along with advertisement plays an important role in convincing the target audience of the attractiveness of the companys brand and generates sales. Pursuing a celebrity endorsement strategy enables advertisers to project a credible image in terms of expertise, persuasiveness, trustworthiness, and objectiveness. To create effective messages, celebrity advertisers also have to consider the attractiveness of the spokesperson. Source attractiveness refers to the endorsers Physical appearance, Personality, Likeability and Similarity to the receiver, thus to the perceived social value of the source. This behavior mainly goes back to halo effect, whereby persons who perform well on one dimension example: physical attractiveness or top professional performance, social status are assumed to excel on other levels as well i.e. happiness and coolness. This is evident from the use of Fardeen Khan, modern, dynamic, outgoing and smart personality for Provogue; he translates the modernism of the brand well. Titan uses Aamir Khan in his different avatars for communicating to the public that their watches are as reliable and passionate as Aamir is for films. Both Fardeen and Aamir carry the message well and enhance the credibility of the brand they endorse. Establishing a Perfect Match Research proves that a spokesperson especially for a service product or organization (ICICI- First Amitabh Bachchan, now Shahrukh Khan) interacts with the type of brand being advertised. These stars communicate the value of the product and transform an ordinary service into a miracle solution for all problems of an ordinary customer. According to Friedman and Friedman (1979), a famous relative to a normal spokesperson is more effective for products high in psychological or social risk, involving such elements as good taste, self-image, and opinion of others. Several research studies have examined the congruency between celebrity endorsers and brands to explain the effectiveness of using famous persons to promote brands. In India, a brand called Reid Taylor presented its perfect example when they first launched their advertising campaign featuring James Bond fame of the time Mr. Pierce Brosnan along with the tagline BOND WITH THE BEST but the James  Bond idea did not worked and the company was not happy with the results. After the debacle of the first campaign, company introduced a family ad where children are celebrating there parents silver wedding anniversary and they are out with their father to purchase a suit for him. Even this commercial did not work and it was taken off the air. As a last resort, company introduced Mr. Amitabh Bachchan as Reid Taylor man, a man propagating the brand for special occasion and for very special people in life. The commercial from the initial days got good response and did extremely well as people were able to connect with Mr. Bachchan and the values he was propagating. For the masses, there was a perfect match of an ideal Indian family man, a star and a good quality but bit highly priced brand reserved especially for special occasions and for very special people. Second example that can be quoted is of Vishwanathan Anand, who endorsed NIIT. NIIT adopted a very smart strategy by roping in Vishwanathan Anand an international chess wizard for their advertising campaign. As chess is considered to be a game full of strategies and a game for smart people and when one of the greats of the game is asking people to join NIIT it was suppose to have a positive influence on the people and actually it had. There was complete congruency and compatibility between the celebrity endorser, the product and the message. Contrary to only favorable outcomes, there are several examples where the product, even the entire campaign collapsed due to heavy weight celebrity as the agency or the ad failed to establish the relationship between the endorser and the product. Keeping the focus only on success, where the product and the celebrity were a perfect match, following are few examples: Celebrity Endorser Company / Product Amitabh Bachchan * Dabur * Cadbury * Reid and Taylor * Parker Shahrukh Khan * Santro * Videocon * Sunfeast * Pepsi Juhi Chawala * Kurkure Ustad Zakir Hussain * Taj mahal tea Aamir Khan * Titan * Coke * Toyota Innova Aishwarya Rai * Nakshatra * Lux Rani Mukherjee * Fanta * Nestle Munch Kajol and Ajay Devgan * Whirlpool * Tata Indicom The campaigns are not only basking with the glory of success stories, but there is considerable number of failures as well. Assuming that a person just have to be famous to represent a successful brand, however, would be incorrect and may turn out to be a very dangerous preposition resulting into a big calamity for the entire advertising campaign or the brand. Very well accepted and attractive super stars like Abhishek Bachchan and Amitabh Bachchan failed in turning their endorsements into success i.e. Maruti Versa similarly Virendra Sehwag also failed to deliver Reliance Telecommunication with the master stroke of his cricketing genius. Among the possible reasons identified by several authors, including overexposure and identification, the match-up hypothesis specifically suggests that the effectiveness depends on the existence of a fit between the celebrity spokesperson and endorsed brand. Empirical work on the congruency of brand with the celebrity often has concentrated on the physical attractiveness of the endorser. Results show that an attractive spokespersons are more effective in terms of attitude change when prompting brands that enhance ones attractiveness i.e. cosmetics; health drinks or fashion wear. Primary data states, for celebrity spokespersons to be truly effective, they should be knowledgeable, experienced, mature, and a bench mark in their respective field and qualified to talk about the product. Transferring the Meaning After watching an advertisement the consumers try to find the meaning of the advertisement and associate the same with the endorser and eventually transfer to the brand. To understand this phenomenon Mc Cracken (1989)  suggested a comprehensive model known as Meaning Transfer Model. This three-stage model suggests how the meaning associated with the famous person moves from the endorser to the product or the brand. Thus, meanings attributed to the celebrity become associated with the brand in the consumers mind. Finally, in the consumption process, the customer acquires the brands meaning. The third stage of the model explicitly shows the importance of the consumers role in the process of endorsing brands with famous persons. In contrast to anonymous endorsers, celebrities add value to the image transfer process by offering meanings of extra depth and power, what is complemented by their life style and personalities. Therefore, to transfer the correct meaning to the consumer the company should select a celebrity that will produce the most favorable response for consumers and for the purpose the celebrity should have, the appropriate set of characteristics and the public should be able to visualize and comprehend the same. The company should consider the consumers needs while developing their communication strategy and selecting an appropriate celebrity to transmit the same, i.e. Kurkure used actress Juhi Chawala with the punch line Masti Bole To Kurkure and the actress on screen and off-screen personifies the masti and helps the brand in communicating the same easily. Compatibility of the celebritys persona with the overall brand image is very important, as a celebrity imparts credibility and inspirational value to a brand and his or her image should perfectly match the brands image. A good brand campaign idea and an intrinsic link between the celebrity and the message are must for a successful campaign. Certain elements that generate a perfect match or compatibility between the celebrity and brand image are: * Celebritys fit with the brand image along with celebrity-target audience match. * Celebrity associated values and celebrity-product match. * Costs of acquiring the celebrity and his or her popularity along with controversy risks associated with the celebrity. * Credibility, availability and physical attractiveness of celebrity. The above points can be put to perspective by using two examples, first Kapil Devs Palmolive da jawaab nahin and second Nakshatras brand recall due to its endorser, the gorgeous Aishwarya Rai Bachchan. Both brands have edged out and carved out their niche in consumers mind due to image and credibility of their endorsers.  These were the cases of perfect match between the brand image and the image or persona of the celebrity endorser. Conclusion A brief assessment of the current market situation indicates, that celebrity endorsement advertising strategy can under the right circumstances indeed justify the high costs associated with this form of advertising. The use of celebrity for endorsements create a very favorable impact on the consumer and it creates a connect which forces a consumer to purchase a product. However, as several failures show, it is essential for advertisers to be aware of the complex processes underlying celebrity endorsement. It has been proved from the discussion that celebrity endorsements are a powerful and useful tool that magnifies the effect of a campaign but the word of caution to be followed seriously; celebrities alone do not guarantee success nor does a great advertising campaign or the best possible product. It is the combination of several factors and elements that work together for the success of a brand and its acceptance in the minds of consumers as well as for its market offering. Modern day consumers are well educated and smart, they know celebrities are being paid for these endorsements and this knowledge makes consumers rather more cynical about the product and celebrity endorsements. Majority of the consuming population also knows what is advertising and how it actually works and this knowledge of consumer makes the task of celebrity endorsement all the more difficult and challenging for the advertising companies and the sponsors. Indian companies both advertising and product offering companies have top make an effort to overcome this ever-mounting challenge. References * Aaker, David A. (1996), Building Strong Brands. New York, NY: The Free Press. * Daneshvary, Rennae and R. Keith Schwer (2000), The Association Endorsement and * Consumers Intention to Purchase, Journal of Consumer Marketing, 17 (3), 203-213. * Friedman, Hershey H. and Linda Friedman (1979), Endorser Effectiveness by Product Type, Journal of Advertising Research, 19 (5), 63-71. * McCracken, Grant (1989), Who Is the Celebrity Endorser? Cultural Foundations of the Endorsement Process, Journal of Consumer Research, 16 (3), 310-321.